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05/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - 0 for 24? Make that 1 for...who's counting!
Seconds after Super Saver cruised past the finish line in the 136th Kentucky Derby, all of Todd Pletcher's previous setbacks meant absolutely nothing. The four-time Eclipse Award-winner can no longer be viewed as the most preeminent trainer in the country without a Derby victory.
Pletcher seemed to not even be fazed by finally getting the monkey off his back and handled the win as one would have expected - cool, calm and collected.
The horse that got him to this point wasn't the highly-touted Eskendereya, who had to bow out of the race one week earlier, but WinStar Farm's Super Saver, who wound up the 8-1 second-choice in the Run for the Roses.
The homebred had a few things in his favor this past Saturday, first of which was an affinity for the wet going - the colt already owned a prior victory in the slop last September at Belmont Park.
Second, a win over the Churchill Downs surface is always a plus and Super Saver had that going for him as well.
Third, and perhaps most important, he had Calvin Borel in the saddle.
Winning the Kentucky Derby has become old hat for Borel as the veteran jockey flat-out owns the race with three victories in the last four years.
The Louisiana native had Super Saver on the rail (his trademark spot) for almost the entire length of the Derby and the bay colt responded with a 2 1/2- length win over the late closing Ice Box. The final time for the 1 1/4-mile event was 2:04 2/5 seconds over the sloppy track.
Speaking of Ice Box, the Florida Derby winner suffered through a nasty trip having to steady on three separate occasions during the race. His second-place finish should put to rest any negative thoughts of horses coming into the Kentucky Derby off a six-week layoff.
As was the case with Super Saver, another horse that hugged the rail almost the entire way was Paddy O'Prado. The third-place finisher had pretty much the same trip as the winner, but was always a few lengths behind. Still, a very good performance from a colt whose lone conventional dirt race was a seventh- place finish last July.
Longshot Make Music for Me closed well from last to wind up fourth completing a superfecta worth $202,559.20.
It was the fourth straight year the winner had just two prep races in his three-year-old campaign - something to keep in mind when handicapping the 2011 Kentucky Derby.
OTHER TOP PERFORMANCES
Noble's Promise wasn't even expected to enter the race after a dismal fifth- place finish in the Arkansas Derby. The Kenny McPeek-trained colt was suffering from a lung infection, not to mention receiving cuts and scrapes during the running of the race.
However, the gritty three-year-old, with a pedigree that most experts thought wouldn't allow him to compete at 10 furlongs, came through with a sensational effort taking the lead approaching the top of the stretch before fading to fifth at the wire.
Lookin At Lucky, the 6-1 favorite, had another eventful trip, his fourth in his last five appearances. The two-year-old champ was up against it way back on Wednesday when he drew post position one, and the race played out exactly as expected.
After getting roughed up by Noble's Promise early on, he was then mugged by Stately Victor forcing jockey Garrett Gomez to steady his mount. The three- time grade 1 winner was all the way back in 18th position ahead of just Ice Box and Make Music for Me after the first quarter-mile before closing strongly around the turn.
It's interesting to note that five of the final top eight finishers were 15th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th after a blistering 46-second first-half mile. The only horse far back early on that failed to fire was Awesome Act, who wound up next-to-last in the 20-horse field.
On the other hand, kudos go out to Super Saver and Noble's Promise for being the only two colts in the first flight of horses to earn purse money - Super Saver $1,425,200 for the win and Noble's Promise $60,000 for finishing fifth.
WHERE WAS THE VALUE?
The wait for the Derby is a long one, especially over the winter when most of the betting action is in the form of assorted prep races.
Another way to have action is to play one, two, or all three Kentucky Derby Future Wagers. All are risky plays as witnessed by the late defections of Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, I Want Revenge and Eskendereya over the last two years.
Still, there are ways to beat the system.
Super Saver, who went off at 8-1 on race day, was an incredible 35-1 in Pool 3 based on his initial three-year-old prep race at Tampa Bay Downs. The 2010 Kentucky Derby winner was slightly lower odds in the first two wagers closing at 20-1 in Pool 1, followed by 24-1 in Pool 2.
A two-dollar Pool 3 exacta wager with Super Saver over Ice Box also cleaned house compared to Derby Day as the payoff came back a whopping $1,077.40 instead of the minuscule $152.40 at the track.
On the other hand, the exacta in Pools 1 and 2 failed to light up the board since Ice Box was not a single entrant in the first two future wagers. Those payoffs with Super Saver over the "field" were very similar to the actual price at Churchill Downs. The Pool 1 exacta returned just $176.40 while the number in Pool 2 came back a tad higher at $259.20.
LOOKING AHEAD TO BALTIMORE
The Preakness is less than two weeks away on May 15 at Pimlico, and as of now, a full field is expected with Super Saver leading the charge.
Others considering the second leg of the Triple Crown are Lookin At Lucky, Paddy OPrado, Make Music for Me, Schoolyard Dreams, Caracortado, Dublin, Pleasant Prince, Jackson Bend, Hurricane Ike, A Little Warm, Aikenite, Bushwacked and Turf Melody
Remember, two of the last four Preakness winners did not race in the Kentucky Derby, a far cry from the previous trend that had just one non-Derby starter (Red Bullet) win the race since Deputed Testamony rolled home in the slop back in 1983.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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