Brewers ready brooms for skidding Bucs

Baseball Betting Lines

07/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Veteran lefty Randy Wolf pitches for the sweep when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates today in the finale of their three-game series at Miller Park.

Milwaukee has taken one-run verdicts in each of the first two games of the series, including a 4-3 triumph on Saturday, when Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder hit back-to-back home runs to support 6 1/3 strong innings from Dave Bush.

Bush (4-6) gave up two runs on six hits with two walks and five strikeouts. Braun also doubled and scored three times, while Casey McGehee drove in a run and had two hits for Milwaukee.

Brewers rookie right-hander John Axford recorded his 10th save in as many opportunities despite serving up a homer to Ryan Doumit in the ninth.

The Brewers won Friday, 5-4, after Braun came through with the game-winning hit and Fielder had another home run.

Garrett Jones smacked his 11th homer of the year for the Pirates, who have now lost five in a row. Starter Jeff Karstens (2-4) allowed four runs on five hits with a season-high six walks in five innings.

Wolf, a second-round pick of the Philadelphia Phillies in 1997, was an 11-game winner for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season before coming to the Brewers as a free agent and winning six of his initial 14 decisions. He downed St. Louis on July 1 for his last win, then subsequently dropped a 6-1 verdict to San Francisco on Tuesday despite allowing four hits and one earned run in seven innings.

He took just his second loss in 15 career starts against the Pirates May 19 in Pittsburgh, allowing 10 hits and six runs in 6 1/3 innings. Lifetime against Pittsburgh, Wolf is 8-2 with a 3.42 earned run average across exactly 100 innings.

The Pirates counter with Texas-born rookie right-hander Brad Lincoln, who was just 12 years old when Wolf debuted in the minors.

Lincoln was a 6-2 loser at Houston his last time out after allowing seven hits and five runs in five innings. He'd earned his lone major-league win one start earlier with a 2-0 triumph at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs on June 30.

In 36 big-league innings over six starts, Lincoln has given up 40 hits and 21 earned runs with 10 walks and 14 strikeouts.

Milwaukee has won seven of its 10 matchups with the Pirates this season and is 30-9 against the Bucs since the start of the 2008 campaign.

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Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch

Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.

Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.

"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs.

How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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